The odds that President Donald Trump would be impeached this year saw a spike on Polymarket after tech mogul Elon Musk backed a call to remove him from office.
What happened: As of this writing, the betting contract titled "Will Trump be impeached in 2025?" had 10% odds in its favor on the decentralized prediction platform.
The likelihood reached a peak of 14% in mid-April but declined in the subsequent weeks, falling to 8% last week. However, the odds started rising again after Musk supported impeaching Trump and replacing him with Vice President JD Vance.
More than $819,000 has been wagered on the outcome. The market will vote “Yes” if the House of Representatives votes by a simple majority to adopt or pass one or more articles of impeachment against Trump.
The House has the sole power to initiate the impeachment. The Senate then has the sole power to hold a trial and decide whether to convict or acquit the president.
Trump is the only U.S. president in history to be impeached twice, although he hasn’t been convicted.
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Note that Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory restrictions.
Why It Matters: These odds come amid an escalating public feud between Musk and President Donald Trump.
The fallout was triggered by Musk’s sharp attack on Trump’s “big, beautiful bill“. The conflict worsened when Trump said he was “very surprised” and “very disappointed” by Musk’s remarks.
The fallout turned ugly, with Musk accusing the Trump administration of withholding documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Trump responded by calling Musk "crazy" and threatening to cancel federal contracts and subsidies awarded to Musk's businesses.
Photo Courtesy: RKY Photo on Shutterstock.com
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