T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (NASDAQ:TROW) may be heading into a long stretch of underperformance, if the Adhishthana Cycle is anything to go by. The stock has now entered the 18th and final phase of its Adhishthana Cycle on the weekly chart, a phase that typically brings either a peak or a slump, depending on prior structure.
Breaking Down the Past Moves
TROW had shown strong structural alignment with the Adhishthana principles throughout much of its cycle. Particularly between Phases 10 to 12, the stock formed what’s referred to as the Adhishthana Himalayan Formation.
The stock began to rally in Phase 10, signaling the start of the ascent of the formation, and ended the phase without a peak.
Quoting from my book:
"The 18th interval is expected to be the level of peak formation; if not, then the 23rd interval. If this phase concludes without forming the peak, it is anticipated to occur in the following phases."
-- Adhishthana: The Principles That Govern Wealth, Time & Tragedy
With no peak visible in Phase 10, the stock continued upward with strong momentum into Phase 11, where it finally topped at $224.56. What followed was equally predictable within the Adhishthana context. A swift and deep correction known as the "Wrath of Ganga." This move erased much of the gains, pulling the stock back toward the origin of the rally and completing the Adhishthana Himalayan Formation with structural precision.
What Phase 18 Means for TROW
With the stock now in Phase 18, the outlook gets murky. Typically, a stock may hit its Nirvana (the highest point in its cycle) during this phase, but only if certain preconditions are met. In TROW’s case, the Guna Triads (Phases 14–16) lacked the necessary bullish strength, known as Satoguna in the Adhishthana model.
Without this element, the stock is unlikely to rally in its current Phase 18. Instead, TROW may spend the remainder of this phase through June 28, 2026, in a state of bearish consolidation.
Monthly Outlook Adds Pressure
Zooming out, the monthly structure adds to the caution. TROW is currently in Phase 12 on the monthly chart. Similar to the weekly timeframe, the stock has completed its Himalayan Formation here as well -- but without signs of continuation.
Here's the problem: the monthly Phase 13 doesn't end until late 2029. And if momentum remains weak through weekly Phase 18, a similar multi-year sideways or downward trend could follow on the monthly scale due to a range-bound Phase 12.
Investor Takeaway
TROW may not be the most attractive bet in its current structure. Long-term holders should be prepared for extended weakness or sideways movement, as there's little sign of strength emerging anytime soon. Even for those considering hedging, the wide spreads in the options chain make it a tough play for retail participants. As for new investors, it's best to stay on the sidelines until the structure shifts--something that doesn't appear likely in the near term.
