U.S. stock futures fell on Monday following Friday’s advances. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave Wall Street--and Main Street--a reason to celebrate. In a closely watched speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, Powell sent a clear signal that the central bank is preparing to shift its stance on interest rates as early as next month.

President Donald Trump launched a national security investigation into furniture imports into the United States, aimed at reshoring jobs and promoting domestic manufacturing in the sector.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.26% and the two-year bond was at 3.71%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing an 87.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates for the Sept. 17 decision.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 0.20% at $644.01, while the QQQ declined 0.27% to $570.42, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session

Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed on a positive note, with consumer discretionary, energy, and communication services stocks recording the biggest gains on Friday.

However, consumer staples stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.

Shares of Workday Inc. (NASDAQ:WDAY) fell around 3% on Friday after the company reported second-quarter results and issued third-quarter sales guidance below estimates. Additionally, the company announced it will acquire Paradox.

Shares of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BJ) fell more than 8% on Friday after the company reported a second-quarter revenue miss.

On the economic data front, the Baker Hughes oil rig count fell by 1 to 411 in the latest week.

The Dow Jones index ended 846 points or 1.89% higher at 45,631.74, whereas the S&P 500 index rose 1.52% to 6,466.91. Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.88% to 21,496.54, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 3.86% to end at 2,361.95.

Insights From Analysts

Following Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s pivotal speech at Jackson Hole, market analysts see a significant dovish shift, with most interpreting his remarks as a clear signal that a September interest rate cut is likely on the table.

Ed Yardeni notes that since the weak July employment report, investors have been betting that the “Fed Put” is back in play. He observes that Powell, after months of pushing back against rate cuts, adopted a new tone at Jackson Hole, stating that the “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.

However, Yardeni injects a note of caution, maintaining it as his base-case scenario (with a 55% probability) that hotter-than-expected August inflation and employment data could still lead the Fed to hold off on easing in September.

Despite this, he assigns a 25% chance of a market “melt-up” if the Fed does cut rates. Yardeni’s year-end S&P 500 target remains 6600, and he believes the bull market will become increasingly earnings-led, pointing to a strong 8.8% net earnings surprise in the second quarter of 2025 as evidence.

According to investment analyst Louis Navellier, the Fed’s focus has decisively shifted to its unemployment mandate, which is now “overshadowing any inflation fears”.

He highlights Powell’s concern that “downside risks to employment are rising”. Navellier offers a particularly bullish interpretation of Powell’s statement that the policy rate is “100 basis points closer to neutral,” suggesting this implies not just one but potentially four incoming rate cuts.

Navellier also points to cooling housing inflation as a supporting factor, citing an unexpected 2% rise in existing home sales in July and a 12.9% year-over-year increase in housing starts, which he sees as good news for the industry

Phil Rosen of Opening Bell Daily offers the most direct takeaway: “The Fed is ready to cut rates in September and asset prices are going higher”.

He notes the market’s immediate and powerful reaction to the speech, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, and even crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ether spiking higher.

Quoting Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management, Rosen paints a vivid picture: “the party isn't over yet and Jay isn't ready to take away the (spiked) punch bowl”.

The report also adds historical context from Ryan Detrick of Carson Research, showing that the S&P 500 is higher 10 out of 11 times when the Fed takes between 5 and 12 months between cuts, as is the case in the current cycle.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on this week;

• On Monday, July’s new home sales data will be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at 3:15 p.m. and New York Fed President John Williams will speak at 7:15 p.m. ET.
• On Tuesday, July’s Durable-goods orders data will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• June’s S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 cities will be announced at 9:00 a.m., and August’s consumer confidence data will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.
• No data release or economic event is scheduled on Wednesday.
• On Thursday, the initial jobless claims data for the week ending Aug. 23 and the second quarter GDP’s first revision will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Fed Gov. Christopher Waller will speak at 6:00 p.m. ET.
• On Friday, July’s personal income, personal spending, headline and core PCE index, advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, advanced retail inventories, and advanced wholesale inventories data will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• August’s Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) will be out by 9:45 a.m., and final consumer sentiment data will be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus

• PDD Holdings Inc. ADR (NASDAQ:PDD) jumped 3.09% as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts estimate earnings of $1.69 per share on revenue of $14.35 billion.
• Heico Corp. (NYSE:HEI) was up 0.40% in premarket on Monday as it is expected to report earnings after the closing bell. Analysts estimate earnings of $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.12 billion.
• Semtech Corp. (NASDAQ:SMTC) was down 0.18% as analysts expect it to report earnings of 40 cents per share on revenue of $256.09 million after the closing bell.
• FiscalNote Holdings Inc. (NYSE:NOTE) was down 0.84% after it disclosed a 1-for-12 reverse stock split of common stock.
• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) rose 2.98% as analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that President Donald Trump’s $11 billion stake in the firm is a strong vote of confidence in the chipmaker’s future, but cautions that the investment won’t immediately resolve its lag in advanced semiconductor technology.
• Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) was up 0.70% after Canada authorized its updated Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine.
• Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ:KDP) dropped 3.06% which is close to striking an $18 billion deal to acquire Dutch coffee company JDE Peet’s NV.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.44% to hover around $63.94 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.27% to hover around $3,362.96 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.19% higher at the 97.8970 level.

Asian markets ended higher on Monday, as India’s S&P BSE Sensex, Australia's ASX 200, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and China’s CSI 300 indices rose. European markets were mostly lower in early trade.

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